As another tumultuous year from a geopolitical perspective draws to a close and we look forward to the Christmas Season, I suggest it would be prudent to candidly assess how strong or fragile is the Union of the four constituent parts of the United Kingdom and what can we realistically do to strengthen it?

Despite its very large Parliamentary majority, 2025 has been a very poor one for the Government in terms of not delivering the promised stability, policy U turns (Winter Fuel Payments), political weakness (welfare reform) months of kite flying as to the contents of the Chancellor’s budget and a critical erosion of support from the public as evidenced by a stream of opinion polls.

Second, the economic weakness of UK is an acknowledged reality. UK public sector net debt was approximately 95.3% of GDP at the end of September 2025 – a level of indebtedness not seen since the end of the 1960s. Annual debt interest payments exceed £100 billion.

Third, not only is support for the Government ebbing away, but a majority of people are also feeling worse off (financially/economically) – the GfK Consumer Confidence Index dropped to -19 in November ’25. These factors contribute to the volatility of the opinion polls and the surge of support for Reform UK. It is this fragmenting of British politics and its consequential unpredictability together with a discernible ‘running down’ of Britain which should concern the pro-union constituency.

The 2024 General Election probably lulled many of us into a false sense of pro-union security not least because the SNP were reduced from 48 seats in 2019 to 9.

However, the current Government’s unpopularity and the current low polling of the two traditional main political parties suggests that the May ’26 local elections and Scottish Parliament and Welsh Seneed elections will deliver major and unpredictable upheavals with nationalist surges in Scotland and Wales. In October, Scotland’s First Minister, John Swinney, stated that he would declare a mandate for a second independence referendum if the SNP won the 2026 Holyrood election. Also, in October Labour lost Caerphilly in Wales for the first time in 100 years.

Further, in Northern Ireland the agitation for a Border Poll from Sinn Fein and the nationalist lobby has notched up a degree or two without the criteria for such a poll being met. The Good Friday or Belfast Agreement states that the UK Secretary of State must call such a poll if he believes the majority of people in Northern Ireland would vote for unification. Polls indicate there is little change in voting intentions – a Lucid Talk poll in February ’25 found 41% would vote yes for unity and 48% would vote no. A year earlier those figures were 39% and 49% respectively. Across the border in the South there seems little enthusiasm for the subject either – an Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent poll in October ’25 found that voters deemed housing and cost of living the two most important issues to deal with, while a united Ireland barely registered.

Finally, never lose sight of the fact that once a Scottish independence referendum or Northern Irish border poll is lost there will be no rerun.

Whether we judge the current state of the Union to be strong or fragile we can all agree that we should strive to make it stronger.

My personal concern is that the younger generation may not appreciate and cherish our shared history, values and ideals that older generations were proud to identity with as British. The running down or ridiculing the country as distinct from constructive criticism is something not to be lost sight off. Rather, we need to articulate a compelling case for the Union based in addition to shared history and values but also the UK’s position in the world – permanent member of the UN Security Council, significant military prowess relied upon by others, second best globally for higher education and science, its soft power and a tolerance and humanity not always appreciated or matched. The Union is a mature polity and market. These realities transcend the vicissitudes and short sightedness of transient politicians.
Finally, I take heart from the number of influential people who indicate to me their pro-union sympathies and many business colleagues in Southern Ireland who show no enthusiasm for a United Ireland.

Wishing you all a very happy Christmas & a healthy and successful 2026.

Professor Cedric Bell, board member of Together UK Foundation